Concrete Products covers the issues that attract producers of ready mixed and manufactured concrete focusing on equipment and material technology, market development and management topics.
Issue link: http://concrete.epubxp.com/i/442865
www.concreteproducts.com January 2015 • 55 ® Acti Gel 2 0 8 - is Your Solution. Acti-Gel® 208 is a low-dose rheology modifer and mix stabilizer that dramatically improves the performance of concretes. What's Your Problem? What's Your Problem? Segregation Poor Adhesion Lack of Cohesion Bleed Permeability Shape Stability Formwork Pressure Silica Fume Eforescence Hose Lock-Ups High Pump Pressure Active Minerals International 34 Loveton Circle, Suite 100, Sparks, MD 21152 U.S.A. www.acti-gel.com Eliminates Segregation Improves Of-Form Finish Enhances Pumpability info@activeminerals.com 410-512-4130 Visit our booth at: #S12729 #1425 that ear, ember nd eation xpected at easing in FEATURE FORECAST RESIDENTIAL OUTLOOK DIPS Sullivan has adjusted his outlook for housing starts downward. The adjustment is relatively small and places more emphasis on the multifam- ily segment than previously projected. Despite disappointing sales activity in 2014, PCA contin- ues to believe the fundamentals support gains in the new year. Most important to this assessment is job creation. As job creation accelerates, the labor market is expected to increasingly tighten and result in stronger wage gains than have mate- rialized thus far in the recovery. Furthermore, the creation of jobs is critical in generating household formation and favorable homebuyer affordability. PCA believes the fundamentals are in place to support sustained gains in sales activity, but per- haps not at the accelerated rate previously expect- ed. For now, however, even in the context of job growth, income gains, relatively modest interest rates, improving consumer confidence, and histor- ically low mortgage-to-rent ratios, the 2015 rate of acceleration is expected to be modest. A key issue facing the single family market has been tight lending standards. Sullivan expects there will be a lag between the new lending rules and an impact on the market, with most of favorable impact materializing in 2016 and beyond. As a result, PCA has increased the composition of housing starts in favor of multifamily, with strong construction activity in the sector expected to persist through- out the five-year forecast horizon. NONRESIDENTIAL GROWTH CONTINUES With the strengthening in the labor markets and the overall economy, net operating income for nonresidential properties is expected to increase. From PCA's estimated 7 percent growth achieved in 2014, nonresidential construction is expect- ed to increase to 9 percent in 2015, followed by robust growth rates in 2016 and 2017 as well. The strong growth recorded during 2014 by office, industrial, retail and hotel sectors is expected to continue in 2015. In addition, sectors slow to recover and still recording declines in 2014 are expected to record modest increases in 2015. Growth in nonresidential construction activ- ity is only one ingredient pushing cement con- sumption in this sector. During the recession, cement intensities declined 24 percent and accounted for more than half of the total 53.4 million-metric ton decline experienced during 2005-2009. Cement intensity is the amount of powder consumed per real dollar of construction activity. While all sectors of the cement market experienced declines in intensity, it was most noticeable in the nonresidential sector, which experienced a 56 percent decline. Cement inten- sities have been recovering for several years. The recovery has been most noticeable in the nonres- idential sector—amplifying cement consumption. Sullivan reminds us that a 1 percent increase in cement intensity is equivalent to a 1 percent increase in construction activity. The pro- jected 7 percent gain in 2014 nonresiden- tial construction activity, for example, is expected to translate into a 30 percent increase in the sector's cement consump- tion. Cement intensity growth in the non- residential sector is expected to ampli- fy cement consumption growth going forward. It should be kept in mind that PCA's forecast for nonresidential cement intensities do not reach past cycle peak levels. If past cycle peaks are achieved by the end of the forecast horizon, it would imply an additional 5.7 million metric tons in cement consumption in 2019. Continued on page 56