Concrete Products covers the issues that attract producers of ready mixed and manufactured concrete focusing on equipment and material technology, market development and management topics.
Issue link: http://concrete.epubxp.com/i/82325
NEWS SCOPE MARKET OUTLOOK Cement consumption forecast adjusted favorably for second time in 2012 With the first half of 2012 experiencing fa- vorable weather conditions, gains in resi- dential and nonresidential construction activity and robust gains in cement inten- sities, the new Portland Cement Association forecast nearly doubles the expected in- crease in cement consumption for the year. PCA revised its spring forecast upward, an- ticipating a 6.9 percent increase in 2012 from 2011 levels (and up from a May fore- cast of 3.7 percent), followed by a 5.8 per- cent jump in 2013, and a double-digit increase of 10.9 percent in 2014. The forecast points to both changes in construction activity and cement intensity (the amount of powder used per real dollar of construction activity) as the key contrib- utors to cement consumption growth. Be- cause cement usage is greatest at the early stages of a construction project, PCA esti- mates the drop in construction starts was responsible for roughly 75 percent of the cement declines during the recession. "In addition to great construction weather dur- ing the first half of the year, real put-in- place construction activity is up 4.2 percent compared to 2011 levels," Ed Sulli- van, PCA chief economist, said. "We expect to see a 5.5 percent gain on real construc- tion activity this year—after seven consec- utive years of decline." According to Sullivan, one thing is certain going beyond 2012: Uncertainty will charac- terize the near-term economic outlook and inhibit stronger growth conditions from ma- terializing. For example, as with previous forecasts, job creation is the critical ingredi- ent to recovery and key to healing the struc- tural difficulties that currently face the construction market. An erosion of consumer and business confidence resulting from the impending 2013 "fiscal cliff" can adversely affect this. Under current law, increases in taxes and, to a lesser extent, reductions in spending will reduce the federal budget deficit dramatically between 2012 and 2013—a development that some observers have referred to as a "fiscal cliff." CEMENT INDUSTRY REINFORCES CASE FOR NEW EPA EMISSIONS RULE, COMPLIANCE TARGET A recently proposed standard for particulate matter (PM) will allow cement operators to develop new compliance strategies to address it and other emissions-reduction measures, and potentially see fewer plants shuttered due to cost-benefit factors, according to statements at an Environmental Protection Agency public hearing in Arlington, Texas. The hearing examined new EPA proposals to the national emission standard for haz- ardous air pollutants for the portland cement production, modifying original PM guidelines and resetting a September 2013 compliance target to September 2015. PCA previously argued the PM standard should be revised to reflect inherent variability of emissions over time; after review, EPA concurred. PCA also believes the new standard will reduce the number of cement plants that otherwise would have been forced to close, throughout the country. SEPTEMBER 2012 | 21